Three numbers, three jobs
Three figures attach to a lot before it sells and they are constantly muddled, including by people selling something for the first time. They are set by different parties, they commit the seller to different things, and confusing them is how sellers end up with a result they did not intend.
The estimate is a forecast, not a promise
The estimate is the specialist's published opinion of where the lot will land, usually given as a range. It is there to help bidders decide whether to look, and it is a prediction rather than a commitment by anyone.
Estimates are generally pitched to encourage participation rather than to flatter the seller. A range that looks conservative often is, deliberately, because a lot that opens below expectation and climbs produces a better room than one that opens above what anyone will pay and stalls. A seller who reads the low end as an insult has misread what the number is for.
The reserve is a commitment
The reserve is the figure below which the lot will not be sold. It is agreed between seller and house, it is confidential, and it is the seller's only real control once the lot is catalogued.
It is usually set at or below the low estimate, and many houses will not accept one above it, because a reserve the specialist does not believe in produces an unsold lot and wastes everyone's time. If the house resists a reserve, that resistance is information about what they expect the object to do.
The starting bid is choreography
The starting bid is where the auctioneer opens, and it is a tactical decision about getting the room moving. It is typically below the reserve, because opening at the floor kills the sense of momentum that competitive bidding depends on.
A lot opening below its reserve is normal and is not a sign that anything has gone wrong. If bidding stops before reaching the reserve the lot goes unsold, whatever the opening figure was.
| Estimate | Reserve | Starting bid | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Who sets it | The specialist | Seller and house, by agreement | The auctioneer |
| Is it public | Yes, in the catalogue | No, confidential | Yes, on the day |
| What it commits | Nothing. It is a forecast | The lot will not sell below it | Nothing. It is where bidding opens |
| Typical relationship | A range | At or below the low estimate | Usually below the reserve |
| If the room stops here | Not applicable | The lot is bought in, unsold | Bidding simply continues or does not |
How a reserve goes wrong
The common failure is a seller anchoring on a number they have in mind, usually what they paid, what a relative said it was worth, or what a superficially similar item made somewhere else. None of those is evidence about what this object will fetch in this room on this day.
An unsold lot is not a neutral outcome. Depending on the agreement it may attract a charge, the object comes back, and the failure is visible to anyone who follows the sale. Re-offering something that has publicly failed is harder than offering it fresh, which is why the reserve deserves more thought than it usually gets and why choosing where to sell treats it as part of the channel decision rather than an afterthought.
The workable test is to name the figure at which keeping the object is genuinely preferable to selling it. That number is a real preference and it can be defended. Any number chosen because it sounds like what the object ought to be worth is a wish.
How specialists arrive at the range
An estimate is not a guess and it is not an opinion about quality. It is built from what comparable objects have actually made recently, adjusted for the differences between those pieces and this one.
Which is why the first question a specialist asks is often about provenance and condition rather than about the object itself. Two apparently identical pieces can sit far apart in value because one has an unbroken history and the other appeared from nowhere, or because one has been restored in a way that a collector will not accept.
Recency matters more than sellers expect. A price achieved five years ago in a different market is weak evidence about today, and a seller anchoring on a figure they saw once is usually anchoring on exactly that. Asking which comparables produced the range, and when they sold, turns an unwelcome number into a checkable one.
Common questions
Can a reserve be changed after the catalogue is published?
Often it can be lowered by agreement with the house before the sale, and houses will sometimes suggest exactly that if interest ahead of the day is thinner than expected. Raising it is a different matter and is generally refused, because bidders have already made decisions based on the published estimate and moving the floor upward under them is not something a saleroom will want to do.
What happens to a lot that does not meet its reserve?
It is bought in, meaning it goes unsold and stays the seller’s property. What follows depends on the agreement: some houses charge a fee on bought-in lots, some will approach the highest bidder afterwards to see whether a deal can be agreed just below the reserve, and some will offer to re-enter it in a later sale. The terms should be read before signing rather than discovered afterwards.
What does it mean when an estimate is given only on request?
It usually signals a lot where the house expects a wide spread of outcomes and does not want to anchor bidders in either direction, which tends to mean something scarce or something whose attribution carries real uncertainty. It is not a sign that anything is wrong. A seller consigning such a piece should still be given a range privately, and should ask for one if it is not offered.